The facts for the last 20 years in our current division:
Being the sad statistics man that I am, I’ve been reading up on the final points total in our current division (called division 3,2 then 1 depending on the year!). All I wanted to see was what points total we need to 1) make the play offs, 2) be promoted and 3) to go up as champions.
The results are as follows (and are after the Walsall match i.e. 29 games played and 67 points):
To make the play off’s i.e. finish sixth:
The (mean) average points total over the last 20 years in order to make sixth place is 75 points. We are currently on 67 points with 17 games to play. This would therefore require a further 8 points out of a remaining 51 points to play for.
Word of caution: The best points total over this 20 year period that was required to make sixth place was 82 in the 1999/00 season for Stoke City.
Word of optimism: The worst points total over this 20 year period that was required to make sixth place was 69 in the 1989/90 season for Bolton……
To make automatic promotion i.e. to finish second:
The (mean) average points total over the last 20 years in order to make second place is 85 points. We are currently on 67 points with 17 games to play. This would therefore require a further 18 points out of a remaining 51 points to play for.
Word of caution: The best points total over this 20 year period that was required to make second place was 91 in the 1989/90 for Bristol City & 2000/01 for Rotherham.
Word of optimism: The worst points total over this 20 year period that was required to make second place was 81 in the 1991/92 season for Birmingham.
To go up as champions:
The (mean) average points total over the last 20 years in order to be crowned champions is 91 points. We are currently on 67 points with 17 games to play. This would therefore require a further 24 points out of a remaining 51 points to play for.
Word of caution: The best points total over this 20 year period that was achieved to be crowned champions was 101 in the 1998/99 season for Fulham.
Word of optimism: The worst points total over this 20 year period that was achieved to be crowned as champions was 82 in the 1991/92 season for Brentford & in the 2005/06 for Southend
Please don’t tell Nigel Pearson I’ve been dreaming already, but I hope you found these snippets from Matt (Motson) Davis a worthwhile read!!!