Leicester City 2 v 1 West Bromwich Albion
Post Match Analysis by Stuart Dawkins
Does anyone like a 12:30 kick off? Your morning routine is ruined, you are not sure when to eat your meal and any pre-match routine is either truncated or completely missed. Maybe it was the time of day, maybe it was simply the tension and the recent disappointments that meant the feeling as we walked to the match was subdued. Everyone seemed quieter; nervous. Only the visiting fans were making much noise in the stadium as kick-off approached. Indeed, even the Tannoy system was quiet, with the volume of commentary for the usual big-screen videos set at about four out of ten for no apparent reason.
Vardy and KDH appearing in the starting line-up helped brighten things a little. Overnight it had appeared that they and Ricardo might all be missing. Choudhury played the inverted full-back role, otherwise it was almost the usual first-XI. I say almost, as there was a rare recent start for Coady at centre-back, with Faes playing at left-back. That gave City fans a chance to see what the experienced but seldom-seen centre-back could do and gave a section of the West Brom fans a former Wolves player to boo, as well.
As City have faltered and failed to meet expectations in recent weeks, a number of regular themes have emerged which have frustrated fans. The first two minutes provided good examples of two of those themes. Almost immediately, dilly-dallying at the back between the defenders and Hermansen gifted the ball to a West Brom striker, resulting in a shot which really should have been a goal but thankfully wasn’t. Almost immediately, City broke upfield, Vardy releasing Ndidi in a bit of space at the edge of the box, but instead of shooting, Ndidi tried to make one too-clever pass too many and the chance disappeared. None of this lifted the worried mood around the King Power.
You know the feeling recently where it has felt like you have watched the same match repeatedly – Groundhog Day? You know the one: City dominate possession, create the most chances and the other team score a near-Worldie on the break and win? And then, after the match someone, possibly Maresca, points out that City dominated possession and Expected Goals – giving City fans something else to be frustrated about since possession and xG never buttered any parsnips, or of themselves led to points in any league. Well, thankfully, today’s match was nothing like that.
West Brom looked a decent team with Johnston particularly tricky throughout. Within a quarter hour, a Faes mistake released the visitors down the right-wing, the cross was cut back and a goal looked certain – except that Choudhury somehow managed to clear the attempt from the goal-line. A minute later, another presentable chance was missed by the visitors, and three minutes later yet another.
The City team looked edgy, the City crowd was definitely edgy. West Brom were creating all the chances. So, what happened next? Leicester scored, of course. A decent cross by Faes was flicked on well by Vardy, the keeper parried the attempt straight to Ndidi who lifted the ball into the roof of the net from a yard or two out. Cue pandemonium and relief in the stands and on the pitch, City were one up and back on top of the League.
City began to look like their old selves … until another dodgy back-pass from around the half-way line. Hermansen sprinted yards out of his penalty area to beat the West Brom forward to the ball. All he could really do was hoof it forwards, which he did. The ball bounced near the opponent’s penalty box, the defender mis-judged it, Vardy got the ball and was tumbled over for a slightly harsh, but probably fair penalty.
The xG rating for a penalty kick is approaching 0.8. Vardy taking a penalty again West Brom (a team he usually scores against) in front of away fans who have already taunted him re his wife … surely the expectation is near certainty? Of course not, his rather weak effort hit the post and City remained just a rather fortunate one-nil up at half time.
Leicester started the second half well, until another sloppy give-away in midfield led to yet another good West Brom chance. Hermansen made the good save, the shot from the rebound looked a certain goal but Choudhury – him again – headed the ball up and just over the bar from the goal-line. The corner came in, a West Brom head met the ball which cannoned against the cross bar, dropping to a couple of West Brom players who somehow managed to scoop it wide from a couple of yards out.
A Mavididi cross along the six-yard line provided brief pressure at the other end of the pitch, but Vardy completely missed the ball and the chance, then it was back to the onslaught on the City goal. A slip by KDM led to another goal attempt missed, from just a few yards out. Two minutes later another presentable chance was squandered. The mobile phone reception at the stadium is too poor to check things like Expected Goal stats mid-match – and the entertainment was too enthralling in a nerve-wracking way to have looked in any case, but surely West Brom were well ahead on stats by now, even allowing for the missed penalty? So, what happened next? City scored another, of course. A good old-fashioned piece of wing-work by Fatawu – beat your man, put in a cross – led to a classic Vardy headed goal from six-yards out. Cue more pandemonium and surely it was now job done?
West Brom made three immediate substitutions, and the continuing threat from the visitors got its reward. A simple through ball split the Leicester defence, and Wallace beat Hermansen to score and ratchet the tension up again. The opposition now had four substitutes on the pitch; lots of fresh legs whilst City’s over-worked team looked ever-slower and more fatigued – another theme complained about by City fans recently. Even when Praet was standing on the touch-line waiting to come on, the ball had left the pitch three times before he actually did so – replacing KDH who had been fairly subdued, probably reflecting the fact that he had been unwell earlier in the week. Yet City held on.
With a couple of minutes of normal time to go, Daka replaced Vardy and Justin came on for Mavididi to form more-or-less a back five. It was scrappy, West Brom attacked and attacked, City dug in. Tackles flew in, balls were cleared until, a last, the six minutes of additional time were completed, and City had won.
There is no doubt what the result meant for the stadium full of City fans. The reaction from the players showed there was no doubt what it meant to them too. The expectations formed from the early-season dominance maybe, just maybe, delivering the promotion that once looked certain. And after all those games when bad luck and bad finishing had meant that Expected Goal victories were not matched with real victories, maybe, just maybe, the probabilities do even out over the season and wins like this one – lucky and scrappy – happen too? City are on top again, their fate on the pitch is in their own hands and (Postscript) as I finish typing this, Southampton have just lost against the run of play to a goal by Cardiff late in stoppage time.
Funny old game, football.
Leicester City: Hermansen, Coady, Vestergaard, Choudhury, Winks, Ndidi, Fatawu, Dewsbury-Hall(Praet), Mavididi(Justin), Vardy(Daka). Unused Subs: Doyle, Cannon, Akgun, Stolarczyk, McAteer.
Referee: Bramall Attendance 31,874.
The views expressed in this report are the opinions of the Trust member nominated to file the report only and do not represent the views of the Foxes Trust organisation.