A Massive Ask – Updated

Matt Davis reviews the stats after the Boro draw and the performances now needed to make the play offs: 

Manager Performances: 

Sousa: Played 10, Won 2, Drawn 2, lost 6 – points 8 (so 0.8 points per game) 

Sven: Played 29, Won 14, Draw 6, lost 9 – points 47 (so 1.66 points per game)

Facts:

• Had we have obtained 1.66 points per game all season we’d be on about 65 points and sitting fairly pretty in 5^th place 

• After 39 games last season we had 61 points (5 points more than this season)
• The (mean) ten year average number of points needed to pick up a sixth place play off place is 73 points (lowest Blackpool & Watford with 70 points in 2009 2010 & 2007 2008 respectively & highest Southampton, Crystal Palace & Norwich with 75 points in  2006 2007, 2005 2006 & 2001 2002 respectively)
• With our poor goal difference, realistically we could be needing to pick up 74 points from the remaining games this season to make sixth place
• To pick up 74 points and make 6^th place we could only afford to drop 3 points out of our remaining 21 on the table (7 games left to play).
• This is 2.57 points per game (As mentioned previously Sven’s average currently is 1.66 points per game)
• It has been pointed out to me though that last season Blackpool were on 54 points after 39 games and finished in 6^th place with 70 points
• Reworking the stats then based on 70 points we could still only afford to drop 7 points out of our remaining 21 on the table (7 games left to play).
• This is 2 points per game (As mentioned previously Sven’s average currently is 1.66 points per game)
• Nearly all our remaining games are against teams with something to play for in terms of a relegation battle or pushing for promotion
• As a reminder, these games are: Burnley Home – 8^th place, Crystal Palace home – 21^st place, Reading Away – 7^th place, Nottm Forest Away – 6^th place, Watford Home 9^th place, Doncaster Away 19^th place & Ipswich Town Home 15^th place